Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016999 0.019244 0.021677 0.024510 0.027719 0.031243 0.035408
2025-08-31 0.013225 0.016260 0.019830 0.024343 0.029901 0.036530 0.045048
2025-09-07 0.011445 0.014889 0.019173 0.024903 0.032376 0.041810 0.054655
2025-09-14 0.009670 0.013170 0.017730 0.024113 0.032838 0.044379 0.060854
2025-09-21 0.008483 0.012022 0.016818 0.023805 0.033753 0.047454 0.067837
2025-09-28 0.007401 0.010867 0.015732 0.023077 0.033921 0.049405 0.073308
2025-10-05 0.006980 0.010589 0.015822 0.023986 0.036452 0.054857 0.084259
2025-10-12 0.006530 0.010210 0.015709 0.024551 0.038480 0.059691 0.094669
2025-10-19 0.006156 0.009900 0.015654 0.025174 0.040614 0.064820 0.105944
2025-10-26 0.005658 0.009341 0.015154 0.025030 0.041491 0.068011 0.114344
2025-11-02 0.005251 0.008890 0.014777 0.025035 0.042583 0.071595 0.123651
2025-11-09 0.004804 0.008328 0.014165 0.024583 0.042849 0.073800 0.130756
2025-11-16 0.004525 0.008035 0.013988 0.024876 0.044449 0.078451 0.142651
2025-11-23 0.004192 0.007618 0.013566 0.024702 0.045210 0.081709 0.152362
2025-11-30 0.004009 0.007451 0.013563 0.025270 0.047343 0.087560 0.167324
2025-12-07 0.003643 0.006916 0.012852 0.024468 0.046862 0.088580 0.173237
2025-12-14 0.003382 0.006553 0.012424 0.024156 0.047265 0.091255 0.182535
2025-12-21 0.003090 0.006107 0.011803 0.023416 0.046770 0.092156 0.188375
2025-12-28 0.003027 0.006102 0.012022 0.024339 0.049628 0.099807 0.208508
2026-01-04 0.002926 0.006012 0.012067 0.024913 0.051823 0.106304 0.226810
2026-01-11 0.002838 0.005939 0.012139 0.025545 0.054183 0.113314 0.246798
2026-01-18 0.002675 0.005698 0.011851 0.025399 0.054890 0.116939 0.259782
2026-01-25 0.002539 0.005503 0.011643 0.025404 0.055915 0.121309 0.274767